When hurricanes attack

What a difference a few days makes.

Five days ago, the Florida weather looked fine.

Four days ago, my morning email contained a message from my brother that there was a possibility of a tropical storm making landfall in Florida.

Three days ago I was upset because tropical storm Katrina had turned into hurricane Katrina, and soon thereafter the airlines cancelled my flights so I couldn't spend the weekend in Ft. Lauderdale visting my new niece.

Two days ago I was grateful that my brother & his family were safe, and had survived the storm with only a few tree branches down in their yard.

Yesterday, as the storm was strenthening in the gulf, some weather forecasters talked about it being a category three or possibly even a category four storm when it hit land.

Now, today, Katrina is a monster. A category five, with sustained winds over 175 miles an hour. And it's huge. The mind boggles. It's already one of the strongest storms ever recorded.

And it's heading for New Orleans, a city where disaster planners know that even a moderate hurricane might spell disaster. If Katrina makes a direct hit on New Orleans, there will be massive loss of life--- and there may still be water in the streets come Mardi Gras. I've seen the hurricane simulations and articles about what a strike on the Louisiana coast would mean, and they paint a grim picture.

More musings on the storm at Making Light.

I know that there are people who can't afford to evacuate or who lack transporation, and those people have my sympathies and prayers.

But I also know that there are people who have decided to stay put, and to ignore both common sense and official decrees.

Back when I was a teenager, I stayed in a Connecticut beach house, only two blocks from the shore as a category 1 hurricane made landfall. We'd lost electricity earlier in the storm, and had only a single flashlight to see by. As the windows of the house began to blow out, I realized that we were insane to have stayed. The argument that we needed to be there to watch the house was ludicrous-- our lives were far more valuable than anything in that house.

Luckily all my cousins lost were those windows, and we then spent a week without power or running water.

I think about that night, and multiply the fear I felt by a thousand times, as the difference between a category 1 and a category 5 storm. This is Wrath of God time, and the potential for devastation that will make the canned disaster shows on cable seem trivial by comparison.

I hope those people who are hesitating about evacuating will change their minds and get out now, while there's still time.

Reason #568 why I had to turn off the TV

Because of the news report that casually mentioned that while New Orleans is evacuating people to the Superdome because of the belief that the structure can withstand 200 mph winds-- it's just that, a belief.

There have been no engineering studies done on whether or not the Superdome could withstand the winds of a category 4 or 5 hurricane-- after the near miss of the last hurricane a study had been commissioned, but it hasn't been finished.

This reminds me of the engineering study done on the John Hancock Building in Boston, meant to ensure that it could withstand a hurricane. Due to its odd shape, there was concern that it could fall over onto its short side. Fortunately an engineering study proved that yes, it was safe, even if a hurricane hit Boston dead center it would not fall over onto it short side.

But the engineers doing the study decided to go beyond the original scope of work requested. They decided to see if there were any conditions under which the building could fall over onto its long side. It was such an absurd idea that no one had thought it worth studying. It was as if you had stood a hardback book up on a table and asked what the odds were that it would fall over onto its spine. Common sense said that the odds were nil. Common sense was wrong-- the engineering study showed that the winds of even a moderate hurricane could tip the building over. Millions of dollars were spent to fix the problem, and a special insurance policy was taken out while the repairs were going on, just in case.

And I'm not even going to get in to the people of Houma, Louisiana, who have decided to ride out the storm in their shrimp boats....

Now's the time to write that check to the Red Cross Disaster Relief Fund, and send my thoughts and prayers for the folks who are facing a very long night and difficult morning.